NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
112–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26263228112
ORL2521291792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 34 23 6 2
De'Anthony Melton S 37 22 5 1
Tobias Harris S 33 22 7 2
Paul Reed S 32 15 10 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 22 14 3 0
Patrick Beverley 17 10 4 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 4 4 1
Robert Covington 11 2 1 2
Mo Bamba 16 0 7 1
Danuel House Jr. 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 36 24 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 28 20 2 1
Paolo Banchero S 38 19 9 4
Caleb Houstan 26 7 6 2
Cole Anthony 23 5 6 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 4 4 1
Jett Howard 1 3 0 0
Anthony Black S 23 3 4 4
Chuma Okeke 15 3 4 0
Goga Bitadze 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Paul Reed PHI
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
8%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.4 7.1 5.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.1 3.1 6.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.0 6.2 5.2
4 Tobias Harris PHI 16.6 6.2 3.4
5 Cole Anthony ORL 15.1 4.5 3.5
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.1 3.4 2.1
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.9 3.8 1.2
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.9 4.2 2.6
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.2 3.8 1.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.4 6.5 2.2
11 Trevelin Queen ORL 8.1 1.9 1.8
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.0 6.2 1.7
13 Anthony Black ORL 7.7 3.4 1.8
14 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.8 3.4 1.2
15 Patrick Beverley PHI 6.8 2.5 1.8
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.2 2.0 0.7
17 Mo Bamba PHI 5.1 3.6 0.7
18 Robert Covington PHI 4.5 3.4 0.8
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.5 1.5 0.9
20 Paul Reed PHI 4.4 4.2 1.0
21 Jaden Springer PHI 4.0 1.8 0.9
22 KJ Martin PHI 2.9 1.7 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 2.5 0.8 0.5
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.8 0.8 0.3
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.7 0.7 0.5
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.