NBA games

CHA @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27233024104
LAC26292731113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAC
4% 96%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 21 11 5
Terry Rozier S 39 18 4 7
P.J. Washington 26 18 8 3
Nick Richards S 33 13 10 2
Bryce McGowens S 22 10 3 2
Gordon Hayward S 24 8 2 5
Cody Martin 25 7 2 2
Nick Smith Jr. 12 5 0 1
Ish Smith 16 4 1 4
Nate Mensah 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 40 29 6 8
Paul George S 37 25 4 4
Ivica Zubac S 31 18 14 4
Russell Westbrook 28 14 11 6
Daniel Theis 15 10 4 0
Norman Powell 28 7 3 0
Terance Mann S 20 4 1 0
Amir Coffey S 23 4 2 0
Kobe Brown 17 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gordon Hayward · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Gordon Hayward makes 5-foot two point shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
12%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 Ish Smith CHA
9%
8 Paul George LAC
9%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
28%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 25.1 4.1 8.3
2 James Harden LAC 22.1 5.5 9.5
3 Paul George LAC 21.9 4.8 5.0
4 Miles Bridges CHA 20.6 6.0 2.8
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 18.2 4.4 5.1
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.5 3.4 1.7
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.9 9.7 1.7
8 P.J. Washington CHA 12.8 5.4 3.2
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.5 6.3 3.7
10 Nick Richards CHA 9.8 7.7 1.2
11 Terance Mann LAC 7.6 3.0 1.8
12 Daniel Theis LAC 7.2 3.7 0.9
13 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.7 1.3 0.7
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.6 1.9 1.0
15 Ish Smith CHA 5.3 1.5 3.8
16 Amir Coffey LAC 5.1 2.0 1.1
17 Brandon Boston LAC 4.8 1.4 0.7
18 Xavier Moon LAC 4.8 2.0 2.0
19 Bones Hyland LAC 4.3 1.2 1.4
20 James Bouknight CHA 4.2 1.1 0.4
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 1.7 1.0
22 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.4 0.5
23 Nate Mensah CHA 2.6 2.4 0.5
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.3 1.7 0.7
25 Jordan Miller LAC 1.9 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.