NBA games

SAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
113–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33273518113
POR32353726130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home POR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 43 8 4
Domantas Sabonis S 36 34 12 5
Harrison Barnes S 36 9 5 1
Malik Monk 19 7 1 4
Kevin Huerter S 22 5 2 2
Keegan Murray S 36 5 4 2
JaVale McGee 5 4 1 1
Chris Duarte 8 4 3 1
Davion Mitchell 2 2 1 0
Kessler Edwards 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 35 29 4 3
Duop Reath 32 25 9 0
Malcolm Brogdon S 30 19 5 6
Jabari Walker 22 17 6 1
Scoot Henderson 28 17 1 11
Jerami Grant S 28 13 2 2
Matisse Thybulle 26 6 4 4
Toumani Camara S 18 4 3 1
Moses Brown S 14 0 11 0
Ish Wainright 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot layup (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
4 Jerami Grant POR
11%
5 Toumani Camara POR
10%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
22%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.0 4.5 7.1
2 Anfernee Simons POR 26.4 3.4 6.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.5 13.0 8.7
4 Jerami Grant POR 23.3 4.0 3.6
5 Keegan Murray SAC 20.0 4.6 2.0
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.3 2.9 6.3
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.0 3.5 4.3
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 13.5 2.9 5.2
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.6 3.2 1.5
10 Toumani Camara POR 10.0 5.3 1.3
11 Skylar Mays POR 9.8 2.6 5.7
12 Duop Reath POR 7.6 3.4 1.2
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.1 2.7 2.1
14 Jabari Walker POR 7.1 5.4 1.2
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.8 3.4 1.4
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.9 4.4 1.7
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 1.9 1.8
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.4 2.9 0.9
19 Kris Murray POR 4.1 2.1 0.9
20 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.3 1.0
21 JaVale McGee SAC 3.4 2.3 0.7
22 Chris Duarte SAC 2.8 1.4 0.5
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 1.0 0.4
24 Davion Mitchell SAC 2.6 0.9 0.7
25 Moses Brown POR 2.6 2.9 0.3
26 Ish Wainright POR 2.5 0.9 0.6
27 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.