NBA games

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
130–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH27373630130
SA32283325118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SA
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 31 31 12 2
Jordan Clarkson 27 24 6 8
Collin Sexton S 29 20 3 6
Walker Kessler 18 11 7 1
Keyonte George 24 10 0 4
Ochai Agbaji 19 10 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 23 8 3 0
John Collins S 18 7 4 0
Kelly Olynyk S 23 7 5 6
Kris Dunn S 19 2 7 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 30 26 4 3
Devin Vassell S 34 22 4 3
Jeremy Sochan S 27 19 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 25 16 5 1
Victor Wembanyama S 24 15 7 4
Tre Jones 27 6 4 7
Zach Collins 18 6 4 4
Sidy Cissoko 2 4 1 0
Blake Wesley 10 3 2 4
Cedi Osman 13 1 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
10%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
8%
6 John Collins UTAH
8%
7 Collin Sexton UTAH
7%
8 Malaki Branham SA
7%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
10 Zach Collins SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.4 8.7 2.0
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.8 3.6 4.6
3 Keldon Johnson SA 20.9 6.2 4.3
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.9 3.7 5.8
5 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.7 11.7 4.2
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.6 3.6 3.4
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 16.2 2.9 4.3
8 Keyonte George UTAH 15.9 3.4 4.7
9 John Collins UTAH 14.7 7.2 1.6
10 Zach Collins SA 13.0 6.0 2.6
11 Malaki Branham SA 12.9 3.2 3.1
12 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.8 3.5 1.6
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.6 5.6 3.9
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.4 9.3 1.4
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 10.0 2.9 1.4
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.8 5.2 5.5
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 9.6 4.0 5.4
18 Tre Jones SA 9.4 2.2 4.9
19 Cedi Osman SA 8.5 2.8 2.6
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.4 2.6 0.7
21 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.3 1.2
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.2 5.8 1.0
23 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 1.9 0.9
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.2 1.5
25 Devonte' Graham SA 4.1 1.6 1.8
26 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 2.2 0.5
27 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.3 1.7
28 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.7 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.