NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN35253115106
OKC40263627129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 25 7 6
Mike Conley S 25 17 2 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 16 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 29 10 5 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 8 1 3
Jaden McDaniels S 27 8 1 1
Kyle Anderson 23 7 0 1
Leonard Miller 5 7 1 0
Naz Reid 19 6 7 0
Jordan McLaughlin 14 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 34 6 9
Jalen Williams S 26 21 1 3
Chet Holmgren S 29 20 4 5
Luguentz Dort S 33 20 4 0
Josh Giddey S 25 10 2 7
Isaiah Joe 16 8 2 2
Kenrich Williams 16 6 3 2
Cason Wallace 24 5 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 14 3 5 1
Vasilije Micic 16 2 0 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot running pullup jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
8 Kyle Anderson MIN
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.8 5.6 6.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.4 10.4 3.9
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.3 5.2 6.3
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.0 7.6 2.1
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.0 4.4 4.2
6 Mike Conley MIN 15.0 3.3 6.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.2 5.4 2.2
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.4 12.1 1.9
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.4 3.4 1.6
10 Josh Giddey OKC 11.5 6.0 3.5
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 4.0 1.5
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.9 2.3 1.9
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.5 3.9 3.9
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.9 1.1
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 2.5 1.6
16 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 6.6 2.2 1.5
17 Shake Milton MIN 5.6 1.4 1.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.8 2.0 0.8
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 2.4 1.5
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.0 2.0 0.8
21 Davis Bertans OKC 3.9 1.2 0.8
22 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.8 3.5 0.6
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.7 1.0 0.8
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.7 0.5
25 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.2 0.6 2.0
26 Tre Mann OKC 3.2 1.2 1.1
27 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.5 1.3 0.9
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.0 0.7
29 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.