NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
116–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MEM2419243613116
NO1929322312115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 40 31 4 7
Desmond Bane S 40 27 5 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 39 19 10 1
Marcus Smart S 29 13 1 3
Bismack Biyombo S 25 8 7 1
David Roddy 16 8 4 1
Vince Williams Jr. 27 6 8 3
Ziaire Williams 12 2 1 1
Xavier Tillman 28 2 8 0
Santi Aldama 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 42 24 6 7
Zion Williamson S 36 23 11 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 36 17 13 0
CJ McCollum S 39 16 2 2
Dyson Daniels 19 11 0 1
Trey Murphy III 36 10 7 1
Jose Alvarado 12 8 3 2
Herbert Jones S 32 4 3 3
Naji Marshall 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
12%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
3 Zion Williamson NO
9%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Marcus Smart MEM
7%
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
16%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 29.9 7.2 8.7
2 Desmond Bane MEM 26.3 4.9 5.7
3 Brandon Ingram NO 24.6 4.7 6.2
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.9 5.3 1.8
5 Zion Williamson NO 23.1 6.8 4.6
6 CJ McCollum NO 19.7 4.3 5.1
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 17.6 11.5 3.0
8 Trey Murphy III NO 15.4 4.2 2.0
9 Marcus Smart MEM 13.5 3.3 5.4
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.8 3.9 2.5
11 Santi Aldama MEM 8.5 4.7 1.7
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.2 5.7 1.7
13 David Roddy MEM 8.1 4.1 1.5
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.7 2.8 1.8
15 Naji Marshall NO 7.4 3.0 2.4
16 Jose Alvarado NO 6.2 2.8 1.8
17 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.1 5.8 1.6
18 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.4 3.0 1.0
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 1.4 0.6
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 2.3 0.9
21 John Konchar MEM 4.7 3.7 0.9
22 Dyson Daniels NO 4.6 2.6 1.3
23 Jacob Gilyard MEM 3.8 0.7 2.5
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.5 2.4 1.0
25 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.4 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.