NBA games

IND @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
123–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33313722123
HOU33342327117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home HOU
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 33 6 10
Myles Turner S 24 18 5 1
Jalen Smith S 23 12 8 1
Buddy Hield 33 11 5 5
Andrew Nembhard S 34 11 2 6
Isaiah Jackson 20 11 8 0
Bennedict Mathurin 24 10 4 0
Aaron Nesmith S 30 10 5 2
Obi Toppin 15 7 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 30 16 5
Fred VanVleet S 40 18 4 9
Tari Eason 26 16 8 1
Aaron Holiday 25 15 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 10 6 0
Dillon Brooks S 22 9 1 1
Amen Thompson 12 7 4 0
Jae'Sean Tate 14 5 1 0
Jalen Green S 20 5 1 2
Jeff Green 11 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Obi Toppin IND
8%
10 Buddy Hield IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
20%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.8 4.3 10.8
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.6 9.9 5.1
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.3 4.2 8.1
4 Myles Turner IND 17.5 7.2 1.4
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.1 10.1 2.1
6 Jalen Green HOU 16.0 4.4 3.2
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.5 4.1 2.2
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 3.7 2.4
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.3 4.2 2.8
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 7.5 1.7
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.3 3.4 1.4
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.7 4.2 1.2
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.8 5.2 0.8
14 Jalen Smith IND 7.6 4.0 0.8
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 2.1 1.4
16 T.J. McConnell IND 6.9 2.9 4.9
17 Jeff Green HOU 6.7 2.4 1.1
18 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.3 1.7 3.2
19 Amen Thompson HOU 6.1 3.2 1.8
20 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.1 2.2 0.6
21 Jordan Nwora IND 4.7 1.8 0.8
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.2 2.9 1.0
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 3.0 0.9
24 Jarace Walker IND 2.8 1.4 0.8
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.6 1.2 0.5
26 Ben Sheppard IND 2.4 0.6 0.4
27 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.2 0.9 0.4
28 Jock Landale HOU 2.0 1.6 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.