NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL17392928113
CHI28223335118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 31 22 3 1
Trae Young S 40 21 2 13
Dejounte Murray S 34 17 6 4
Saddiq Bey S 34 13 8 0
Clint Capela S 27 13 5 1
Onyeka Okongwu 21 11 6 0
Jalen Johnson S 29 10 9 4
Garrison Mathews 13 6 1 0
Trent Forrest 3 0 0 0
Seth Lundy 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 25 2 6
Andre Drummond S 39 24 25 1
Ayo Dosunmu 35 19 7 4
Coby White S 37 19 5 5
Alex Caruso S 29 11 5 5
Jevon Carter 20 10 2 2
Patrick Williams S 25 6 1 0
Terry Taylor 8 4 1 0
Dalen Terry 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Clint Capela ATL
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
3 Patrick Williams CHI
12%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
5 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Coby White CHI
10%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
9 Trae Young ATL
7%
10 Garrison Mathews ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
48%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
14%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.0 3.6 12.3
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.5 4.8 6.6
3 Coby White CHI 24.0 5.9 6.5
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 21.4 4.9 6.1
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.9 4.0 3.5
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.6 6.8 2.9
7 Patrick Williams CHI 14.9 5.0 2.1
8 Clint Capela ATL 14.0 11.1 1.6
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.0 6.6 1.8
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.6 7.2 1.7
11 Alex Caruso CHI 10.3 3.5 2.5
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.3 3.3 2.0
13 Torrey Craig CHI 7.0 3.4 0.9
14 Andre Drummond CHI 6.3 7.4 0.9
15 Jevon Carter CHI 4.8 1.4 1.1
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.9 1.3 0.7
17 Seth Lundy ATL 3.2 1.3 0.5
18 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.8 1.8 0.5
19 Dalen Terry CHI 2.7 1.7 1.1
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.5 1.3 0.5
21 Patty Mills ATL 2.1 0.8 0.7
22 Trent Forrest ATL 1.9 0.9 1.3
23 Julian Phillips CHI 1.8 1.0 0.5
24 Terry Taylor CHI 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.