NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
127–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL33303529127
WSH33272831119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 28 8 9
Paolo Banchero S 38 24 3 8
Anthony Black S 33 23 6 1
Moritz Wagner 15 11 5 1
Cole Anthony 23 11 3 4
Jalen Suggs S 29 11 3 1
Goga Bitadze 12 10 7 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 21 6 4 2
Gary Harris 19 3 0 1
Caleb Houstan 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 33 30 2 3
Tyus Jones S 34 22 6 6
Kyle Kuzma S 36 17 4 6
Corey Kispert 19 15 4 1
Daniel Gafford S 32 13 13 3
Danilo Gallinari 16 9 3 1
Delon Wright 13 7 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly 26 4 6 3
Deni Avdija S 23 2 5 3
Landry Shamet 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
5 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Anthony Black ORL
6%
10 Gary Harris ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
19%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.8 8.0 5.6
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.6 6.6 3.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.7 6.4 5.7
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.8 2.7 4.1
5 Tyus Jones WSH 16.0 3.9 6.1
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.6 4.5 3.6
7 Daniel Gafford WSH 13.1 7.9 2.1
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.4 3.6 2.2
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.9 4.3 1.9
10 Deni Avdija WSH 11.0 5.7 4.2
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 2.2 1.6
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.6 4.3 1.6
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.0 7.0 2.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.9 6.7 1.9
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.7 2.1 1.9
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.5 1.6 1.4
17 Anthony Black ORL 6.4 3.1 2.0
18 Delon Wright WSH 6.0 2.4 3.5
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.1 2.0 0.8
20 Danilo Gallinari WSH 4.8 2.2 0.7
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.4 2.7 0.9
22 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.6 1.7 1.2
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 2.1 0.6
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.7 1.5 0.6
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.0 0.5
26 Johnny Davis WSH 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.