NBA games

BKN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
118–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25362730118
DET31233127112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DET
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 26 24 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 40 21 4 3
Cam Thomas S 23 17 1 1
Nic Claxton S 26 11 11 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 22 11 11 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 33 11 4 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 34 9 5 6
Royce O'Neale 15 8 2 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 21 6 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 41 9 5
Bojan Bogdanovic S 39 23 3 2
Alec Burks 26 15 5 0
Jalen Duren S 33 12 15 4
Jaden Ivey S 28 9 3 4
Isaiah Stewart S 36 7 11 4
Kevin Knox II 12 3 3 0
Ausar Thompson 9 2 1 1
Marcus Sasser 10 0 0 0
James Wiseman 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
9 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
8%
10 Killian Hayes DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
26%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.6 4.9 7.7
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 3.2 3.4
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 21.9 4.3 4.5
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.3 3.3 3.3
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 16.1 4.1 7.3
6 Jaden Ivey DET 15.2 4.5 3.4
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.1 3.9 2.2
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.6 10.0 2.3
9 Nic Claxton BKN 11.2 10.4 1.8
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.9 5.7 2.2
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.3 4.0 1.3
12 Killian Hayes DET 9.3 3.5 4.2
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.1 4.9 1.0
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.4 4.1 3.0
15 Ausar Thompson DET 8.3 4.9 1.7
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.0 8.3 1.8
17 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.8 3.1 4.5
18 James Wiseman DET 7.4 5.4 0.9
19 Marcus Sasser DET 6.3 1.9 1.6
20 Kevin Knox II DET 5.8 2.3 1.0
21 Alec Burks DET 5.5 1.7 1.0
22 Trendon Watford BKN 5.3 3.1 1.6
23 Harry Giles III BKN 4.9 2.6 0.6
24 Isaiah Livers DET 3.9 2.0 1.0
25 Joe Harris DET 3.9 1.6 1.0
26 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.4 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.