NBA games

DAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
128–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36282737128
PHX24303822114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHX
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 44 50 6 15
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 23 3 1
Dereck Lively II S 32 20 10 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 38 18 7 2
Dante Exum S 33 7 4 5
Dwight Powell 7 4 1 2
Jaden Hardy 13 3 2 1
Grant Williams 27 3 3 1
A.J. Lawson 5 0 1 0
Seth Curry 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 39 32 4 4
Chimezie Metu 34 23 19 2
Devin Booker S 40 20 3 10
Kevin Durant S 43 16 8 7
Eric Gordon S 37 14 1 2
Udoka Azubuike 4 4 0 0
Drew Eubanks S 17 2 7 0
Jordan Goodwin 11 2 3 1
Josh Okogie 12 1 2 2
Nassir Little 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
2 Devin Booker PHX
11%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
4 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
6 Dante Exum DAL
8%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
7%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
10 Grant Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
5%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 36.3 8.2 10.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 29.6 5.4 5.8
3 Devin Booker PHX 27.0 5.6 7.5
4 Dante Exum DAL 17.1 4.2 4.1
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.7 3.9 1.9
6 Eric Gordon PHX 12.7 2.8 2.5
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 4.4 2.7
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.6 3.9 1.4
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.4 8.0 1.1
10 Grant Williams DAL 8.9 3.9 1.9
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.7 2.3 1.7
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.7 4.0 3.0
13 Saben Lee PHX 6.5 2.3 2.5
14 Seth Curry DAL 5.7 2.1 1.1
15 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 3.0 1.1
16 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.6 2.8 0.8
17 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.5 1.7 0.9
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.2 4.2 0.8
19 Josh Okogie PHX 5.2 3.0 1.2
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 3.3 1.0
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.7 2.6 1.1
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 4.0 4.2 0.8
23 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.0 1.8 0.8
24 Markieff Morris DAL 3.8 2.0 0.9
25 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.8 2.3 0.6
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.3 3.8 0.6
27 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.