NBA games

PHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI22273727113
MIA26372333119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIA
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 42 27 7 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 25 7 3
Mo Bamba 26 18 6 2
De'Anthony Melton S 37 15 7 5
Tyrese Maxey S 44 12 3 5
Patrick Beverley 13 9 3 0
Paul Reed S 17 4 2 1
KJ Martin 6 2 0 1
Danuel House Jr. 6 1 0 0
Jaden Springer 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 39 31 10 1
Bam Adebayo S 36 26 15 5
Tyler Herro S 38 22 6 5
Duncan Robinson 34 16 4 2
Kyle Lowry S 33 12 1 4
Kevin Love 16 8 10 5
Jamal Cain 17 3 5 0
Caleb Martin S 9 1 5 1
R.J. Hampton 17 0 0 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 11-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
12%
4 Caleb Martin MIA
11%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
39%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.0 2.9 6.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.8 5.6 4.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.2 9.2 4.3
4 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.3 3.4 4.0
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.2 4.0 2.9
6 Tobias Harris PHI 14.5 5.9 3.4
7 Caleb Martin MIA 14.4 6.4 3.0
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.9 3.7 2.9
9 Kevin Love MIA 9.8 5.5 2.5
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 9.6 3.5 1.1
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 9.5 3.3 3.1
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.2 3.4 1.4
13 Patrick Beverley PHI 6.5 2.0 2.1
14 Jamal Cain MIA 6.4 3.1 0.6
15 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.7 4.3 1.2
16 Cole Swider MIA 5.2 1.0 0.9
17 Robert Covington PHI 5.0 3.6 1.0
18 Paul Reed PHI 4.5 3.9 1.1
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.2 1.4 1.0
20 Jaden Springer PHI 4.1 1.6 1.1
21 R.J. Hampton MIA 3.7 1.2 1.3
22 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.7 3.0 1.4
23 Mo Bamba PHI 3.6 2.6 0.5
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.3 2.8 0.4
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.6 1.3 0.7
26 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.2 0.9 0.7
27 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.