NBA games

BOS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
126–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32264127126
LAL23343325115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 28 11 2
Jayson Tatum S 41 25 8 7
Jaylen Brown S 33 19 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 38 18 7 7
Derrick White S 35 18 2 11
Payton Pritchard 13 10 2 0
Al Horford 23 6 6 1
Sam Hauser 15 2 2 0
Neemias Queta 7 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 40 13 4
Taurean Prince S 39 17 4 3
LeBron James S 37 16 9 8
Rui Hachimura 29 12 3 0
Austin Reaves 28 11 6 3
D'Angelo Russell 18 8 1 6
Jarred Vanderbilt S 23 6 6 0
Cam Reddish S 18 5 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
7%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
46%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 27.6 11.7 3.7
2 LeBron James LAL 26.9 8.2 8.6
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 7.6 4.8
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 5.0 4.2
5 Derrick White BOS 21.5 4.6 4.9
6 Austin Reaves LAL 21.3 4.3 5.9
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.9 7.7 2.0
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.7 5.5 4.2
9 Taurean Prince LAL 11.9 3.8 2.3
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.6 3.0 5.0
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.3 3.9 1.5
12 Al Horford BOS 10.5 8.5 3.1
13 Cam Reddish LAL 8.9 3.4 2.2
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.6 3.0 2.8
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.5 1.5
16 Neemias Queta BOS 6.5 6.1 0.9
17 Christian Wood LAL 6.4 4.1 1.1
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.4 2.3 0.8
19 Max Christie LAL 4.2 1.6 0.9
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.0 3.2 0.6
21 Luke Kornet BOS 3.7 3.2 0.4
22 JD Davison BOS 3.6 1.6 2.1
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.3 2.3 0.7
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 3.7 0.8
25 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 2.8 0.7
26 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.5 1.5 1.4
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.