NBA games

GS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
114–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26283525114
DEN29243928120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DEN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins 29 22 3 2
Stephen Curry S 34 18 2 4
Dario Saric 20 14 5 2
Brandin Podziemski S 34 13 9 6
Chris Paul 28 13 3 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 23 13 5 2
Klay Thompson S 32 9 6 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 8 3 1
Kevon Looney S 22 4 3 2
Moses Moody 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 33 28 5 3
Nikola Jokic S 39 26 14 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 19 10 1
Aaron Gordon S 32 16 10 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 16 4 5
Christian Braun 11 6 0 1
Peyton Watson 21 5 0 1
Julian Strawther 8 2 0 0
Reggie Jackson 15 2 0 3
Zeke Nnaji 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Klay Thompson GS
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
7 Stephen Curry GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Kevon Looney GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 4.3 5.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.9 4.9 4.9
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 22.7 11.0 8.4
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.8 4.2 2.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.3 6.1 2.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.3 6.1 1.6
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 13.8 5.0 1.7
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.1 5.1 1.5
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.4 6.6 3.7
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.4 2.3 4.2
11 Draymond Green GS 9.8 5.2 4.8
12 Dario Saric GS 9.6 4.6 1.5
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.2 2.9 2.3
14 Moses Moody GS 8.7 3.4 1.0
15 Peyton Watson DEN 8.4 3.8 1.5
16 Chris Paul GS 8.0 3.6 6.8
17 Christian Braun DEN 7.3 3.1 1.3
18 Julian Strawther DEN 7.0 2.1 1.4
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 6.1 2.2
20 Justin Holiday DEN 5.7 1.8 1.5
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.9 0.9
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.3 4.6 1.0
23 Cory Joseph GS 4.2 1.5 1.9
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 3.3 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 3.7 2.1 0.5
26 Usman Garuba GS 2.7 1.6 0.5
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.5 1.6 0.7
28 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.0 0.4
29 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.