NBA games

MIL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
122–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27243635122
NY36263631129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NY
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 32 13 6
Damian Lillard S 38 32 1 8
Khris Middleton S 33 24 2 6
Brook Lopez S 27 14 6 1
Bobby Portis 31 12 9 0
Pat Connaughton 24 3 7 1
Cameron Payne 10 3 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 14 2 2 1
MarJon Beauchamp 6 0 1 0
Malik Beasley S 19 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 38 4 6
Julius Randle S 41 24 9 2
RJ Barrett S 28 21 6 1
Immanuel Quickley 22 20 0 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 11 8 4
Josh Hart 31 10 9 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 21 3 1 4
Quentin Grimes 12 2 1 2
Taj Gibson 15 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
32%
2 RJ Barrett NY
10%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
5 Julius Randle NY
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
2%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.3 10.8 7.3
2 Julius Randle NY 28.1 8.1 5.2
3 Jalen Brunson NY 27.9 4.6 7.0
4 Damian Lillard MIL 26.1 4.8 7.7
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.4 5.0 2.6
6 Khris Middleton MIL 17.5 5.5 5.0
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.8 7.5 1.6
8 Malik Beasley MIL 12.4 4.6 2.0
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.8 4.9 1.7
10 Immanuel Quickley NY 10.7 2.4 2.0
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 10.4 3.0 2.0
12 Josh Hart NY 9.3 4.7 3.2
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.4 9.6 1.9
14 Evan Fournier NY 8.4 2.3 1.0
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.8 1.5 2.5
16 Quentin Grimes NY 6.5 1.9 1.2
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.3 3.7 1.7
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.1 2.4 0.9
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.0 2.3 1.2
20 Miles McBride NY 3.4 1.2 0.8
21 AJ Green MIL 3.1 0.9 0.5
22 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 1.8 0.6
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.7 1.0 0.3
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.6 1.1 0.6
26 Robin Lopez MIL 1.9 1.1 0.4
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.9 0.4
28 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.