NBA games

MIN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
110–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28312229110
SAC2027232898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 34 5 10
Rudy Gobert S 39 21 17 1
Jaden McDaniels S 41 20 5 1
Mike Conley S 32 12 7 9
Kyle Anderson S 29 10 5 5
Naz Reid 19 6 2 2
Shake Milton 14 5 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 2 0 0
Troy Brown Jr. 3 0 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 27 4 6
Keegan Murray S 40 20 7 0
Domantas Sabonis S 39 17 10 10
Harrison Barnes S 31 12 3 1
Trey Lyles 27 10 7 3
JaVale McGee 9 7 2 1
Chris Duarte 18 3 4 0
Kevin Huerter S 15 2 1 1
Colby Jones 2 0 1 0
Keon Ellis 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 12-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Mike Conley MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
20%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.5 4.4 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.7 5.0 5.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.9 12.0 8.0
4 Keegan Murray SAC 18.2 4.4 1.9
5 Mike Conley MIN 14.5 2.9 6.3
6 Naz Reid MIN 14.4 5.3 2.0
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.0 11.7 1.8
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.0 3.1 1.3
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 2.9 1.5
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.9 2.5 2.8
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.5 3.1 2.0
12 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 7.4 2.4 1.9
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.3 3.9
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.0 4.4 1.5
15 Keon Ellis SAC 5.7 1.9 1.9
16 Luka Garza MIN 5.3 2.1 1.0
17 Shake Milton MIN 5.0 1.2 1.7
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.8 3.0 0.8
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.4 2.4 0.6
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.4 0.5
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.2 1.2 0.9
22 Chris Duarte SAC 2.8 1.7 0.5
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.7 1.2 0.9
24 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.6 1.1 1.1
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.2 0.3
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.4 1.2 0.5
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.1 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.