NBA games

POR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR30163129106
GS23343237126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home GS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 34 25 2 2
Jerami Grant S 32 17 2 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 37 17 6 12
Deandre Ayton S 29 13 6 2
Scoot Henderson 23 12 1 2
Toumani Camara S 25 6 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 16 5 2 2
Jabari Walker 18 5 5 0
Ish Wainright 4 3 1 0
Kris Murray 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 31 28 3 0
Stephen Curry S 30 27 3 2
Brandin Podziemski S 32 15 10 7
Trayce Jackson-Davis 17 13 5 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 11 6 5
Moses Moody 17 11 1 1
Dario Saric 19 8 5 1
Kevon Looney S 22 6 11 7
Jerome Robinson 4 3 0 0
Gui Santos 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malcolm Brogdon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Malcolm Brogdon makes 15-foot two point shot (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Jerami Grant POR
10%
4 Klay Thompson GS
9%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
6 Kevon Looney GS
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Malcolm Brogdon POR
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
12%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 26.8 3.5 5.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.9 4.5 5.7
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.0 4.1 3.8
4 Klay Thompson GS 20.3 4.4 2.5
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.5 5.0 1.7
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.2 10.7 2.1
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.7 3.3 4.6
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 13.1 3.0 5.0
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 6.3 3.6
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 5.3 5.2
11 Dario Saric GS 10.0 4.6 1.9
12 Toumani Camara POR 9.7 5.3 1.3
13 Skylar Mays POR 9.4 2.3 5.4
14 Moses Moody GS 9.3 3.5 1.2
15 Chris Paul GS 8.5 3.6 7.0
16 Duop Reath POR 8.1 3.5 1.1
17 Jabari Walker POR 7.5 5.9 1.2
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.0 3.5 1.2
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 5.7 1.8
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.3 4.5 1.0
21 Gui Santos GS 4.5 2.1 0.7
22 Cory Joseph GS 4.4 1.5 2.1
23 Jerome Robinson GS 4.0 2.1 0.9
24 Kris Murray POR 3.1 1.6 0.6
25 Usman Garuba GS 2.8 1.7 0.6
26 Moses Brown POR 2.5 3.0 0.3
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.