NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
129–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL36353622129
OKC39203229120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 40 7 7
Anthony Davis S 42 26 11 7
Rui Hachimura 30 21 6 2
D'Angelo Russell 17 15 1 3
Austin Reaves 28 11 3 9
Taurean Prince S 28 10 6 1
Cam Reddish S 28 4 4 7
Jarred Vanderbilt S 24 2 6 0
Jaxson Hayes 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 34 5 7
Jalen Williams S 34 28 6 3
Chet Holmgren S 34 19 10 0
Kenrich Williams 23 11 2 5
Luguentz Dort S 30 8 5 0
Isaiah Joe 20 7 5 1
Cason Wallace S 24 5 3 4
Ousmane Dieng 11 5 0 0
Davis Bertans 10 3 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
20%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
80%
Jumper
2%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 5.5 6.8
2 Anthony Davis LAL 27.9 12.7 3.4
3 LeBron James LAL 26.2 8.4 8.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 4.6 5.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 17.6 4.3 4.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 7.9 2.8
7 Taurean Prince LAL 12.3 4.0 2.5
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.2 3.2 5.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.0 3.8 1.6
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.6 1.4
11 Cam Reddish LAL 8.5 3.4 1.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.7 1.4
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.6 2.5 1.4
14 Christian Wood LAL 6.9 4.4 1.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.9 2.4 1.0
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.8 2.4 1.0
17 Max Christie LAL 4.7 1.9 1.0
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 2.6 1.2
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.4 1.7 1.0
20 Tre Mann OKC 4.3 1.7 1.5
21 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.7 0.8 2.2
22 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.6 3.3 0.5
23 Davis Bertans OKC 3.6 0.9 0.6
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.4 3.8 0.9
25 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.4 2.9 0.6
26 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.7 0.8 0.6
27 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.6 1.6 1.4
28 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.0 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.