NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
109–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32252527109
CHI3026162395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus S 41 26 1 7
Jarrett Allen S 35 19 17 7
Craig Porter Jr. S 39 19 7 8
Isaac Okoro S 35 12 3 3
Dean Wade S 36 11 7 1
Georges Niang 21 7 5 0
Damian Jones 12 6 2 1
Tristan Thompson 13 6 6 1
Emoni Bates 9 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 21 5 8
Nikola Vucevic S 34 20 12 4
Coby White S 40 17 4 7
Patrick Williams S 35 13 2 2
Alex Caruso S 32 10 4 1
Dalen Terry 17 6 1 0
Ayo Dosunmu 20 4 3 1
Jevon Carter 9 3 0 0
Andre Drummond 13 1 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Patrick Williams CHI
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Max Strus CLE
9%
7 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
9%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.1 4.7 6.5
2 Coby White CHI 23.7 6.2 6.3
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 10.2 3.7
4 Patrick Williams CHI 14.2 5.0 2.0
5 Max Strus CLE 13.8 4.5 3.6
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.1 9.1 2.6
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.7 3.3 3.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.6 3.1 2.1
9 Alex Caruso CHI 9.4 3.2 2.4
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.1 3.5 2.3
11 Dean Wade CLE 8.5 5.2 1.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.0 2.7 1.5
13 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.2 2.6 3.8
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.1 1.6 1.2
15 Andre Drummond CHI 6.9 7.3 0.8
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.8 3.6 0.8
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.1 1.4 1.3
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.8 4.5 1.0
19 Emoni Bates CLE 3.7 1.7 0.7
20 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.5 1.9 1.1
21 Dalen Terry CHI 2.5 2.0 1.0
22 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 1.3 0.7
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.3 1.3 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.2 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.