NBA games

UTAH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
126–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH31243041126
TOR34372721119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home TOR
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 30 30 3 6
Lauri Markkanen S 39 30 9 5
Collin Sexton S 25 16 0 3
John Collins S 27 10 5 0
Walker Kessler 25 10 8 1
Ochai Agbaji 24 9 3 0
Kris Dunn S 34 8 8 13
Kelly Olynyk S 17 7 4 7
Simone Fontecchio 20 6 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 38 32 14 7
Pascal Siakam S 36 19 9 6
OG Anunoby S 36 19 2 4
Gary Trent Jr. 28 16 0 0
Dennis Schroder S 33 11 3 7
Chris Boucher 13 9 3 1
Precious Achiuwa 21 8 2 1
Malachi Flynn 14 3 2 6
Jakob Poeltl S 21 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 31-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
5 Pascal Siakam TOR
9%
6 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 John Collins UTAH
8%
9 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.0 6.0 5.4
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.9 8.8 6.6
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.1 8.1 1.7
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.1 3.7 4.9
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.0 3.4 5.2
6 OG Anunoby TOR 15.4 4.1 3.8
7 John Collins UTAH 14.9 7.5 1.5
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 11.9 2.8 6.7
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.8 7.5 2.0
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.5 3.9 1.8
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.8 3.0 2.3
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 9.9 5.8 1.9
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.8 8.3 1.4
14 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.8 2.7 1.3
15 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.5 4.6 5.1
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.8 3.4 4.2
17 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 2.8 0.9
18 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.1 2.7 2.9
19 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.2 5.9 1.0
20 Chris Boucher TOR 5.2 2.7 0.7
21 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.5 1.0
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.1 1.7 0.9
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.0 2.5 0.7
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.6 2.3 0.7
25 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.7 1.5 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.