NBA games

DET @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET21352633115
BKN32333328126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BKN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 35 23 6 7
Cade Cunningham S 33 22 3 6
Isaiah Stewart S 33 20 5 5
Bojan Bogdanovic S 39 19 8 4
Kevin Knox II 24 14 1 0
Ausar Thompson S 31 7 5 2
Alec Burks 16 5 1 2
Marvin Bagley III 15 5 5 0
Joe Harris 7 0 1 0
Marcus Sasser 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 33 29 6 7
Cam Thomas S 28 20 2 3
Cameron Johnson S 28 18 2 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 30 14 4 7
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 11 3 1
Nic Claxton S 30 11 7 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 27 10 6 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 6 0 3
Royce O'Neale 19 5 6 5
Jalen Wilson 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes driving dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
3 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
6 Marvin Bagley III DET
9%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
8 Killian Hayes DET
8%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
10 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 4.9 7.8
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 3.6 3.5
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.0 4.4 4.1
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.1 2.9 3.0
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 16.8 4.2 6.7
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.5 4.2 2.4
7 Jaden Ivey DET 12.9 4.2 2.6
8 Nic Claxton BKN 10.9 10.0 1.8
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.2 4.4 1.3
10 Killian Hayes DET 9.5 3.9 4.1
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.1 5.9 1.8
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.1 4.6 1.1
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.3 4.1 3.1
14 James Wiseman DET 8.1 5.6 1.1
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.9 3.5 4.3
16 Ausar Thompson DET 7.5 5.3 1.5
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.4 8.4 2.0
18 Marcus Sasser DET 7.2 1.9 2.2
19 Alec Burks DET 5.2 1.7 0.8
20 Trendon Watford BKN 5.0 3.0 1.7
21 Harry Giles III BKN 4.7 2.5 0.5
22 Isaiah Livers DET 4.6 2.4 1.2
23 Kevin Knox II DET 4.5 2.1 0.6
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.5 1.2 0.7
25 Joe Harris DET 3.0 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.