NBA games

MEM @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
125–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25254035125
ATL32283326119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ATL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 37 6 6
Ja Morant S 36 30 6 11
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 24 20 2 0
Ziaire Williams 23 8 3 3
Bismack Biyombo S 29 8 11 3
Xavier Tillman 16 6 3 0
Santi Aldama 27 6 4 3
John Konchar 13 5 5 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 5 11 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 41 30 5 13
Dejounte Murray S 35 26 4 4
Clint Capela S 30 20 12 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 34 16 4 3
Saddiq Bey S 38 14 6 2
Onyeka Okongwu 28 10 7 4
Seth Lundy 19 3 2 0
Garrison Mathews S 14 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
2 Clint Capela ATL
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
11%
5 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
6 Trae Young ATL
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
8 Garrison Mathews ATL
8%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
14%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 30.0 3.0 11.7
2 Desmond Bane MEM 26.5 4.8 6.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.3 5.4 2.0
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.3 4.9 6.2
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.6 4.1 3.5
6 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.8 7.3 1.8
7 Clint Capela ATL 13.6 11.6 1.7
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.3 7.4 1.6
9 Santi Aldama MEM 10.1 5.6 2.0
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.7 5.7 2.0
11 David Roddy MEM 8.8 4.4 1.7
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.3 3.0 1.7
13 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.6 5.7 1.8
14 Xavier Tillman MEM 6.1 3.5 1.5
15 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.9 2.1 1.3
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.8 1.6 0.7
17 John Konchar MEM 4.7 3.6 1.0
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.5 2.0 0.9
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.3 0.9 2.8
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.7 1.9 0.8
21 GG Jackson MEM 3.5 1.1 0.4
22 Patty Mills ATL 3.3 1.4 1.0
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.2 2.0 0.6
24 Seth Lundy ATL 3.0 1.1 0.4
25 Trent Forrest ATL 2.2 1.1 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.