NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
106–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26213227106
NO24273320104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 38 37 11 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 26 11 2
Fred VanVleet S 36 10 0 3
Jalen Green S 22 9 4 2
Tari Eason 20 8 4 0
Dillon Brooks S 28 5 5 5
Aaron Holiday 15 5 1 1
Amen Thompson 10 2 0 0
Jeff Green 21 2 3 2
Jae'Sean Tate 11 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 28 8 4
Brandon Ingram S 36 19 3 5
Trey Murphy III 34 14 6 0
CJ McCollum S 34 13 5 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 26 10 11 5
Herbert Jones S 18 6 3 1
Naji Marshall 12 6 2 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 4 3 2
Jose Alvarado 10 4 2 0
Dyson Daniels 14 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes layup (Jonas Valanciunas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
15%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.0 4.7 5.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 22.0 6.3 4.9
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.6 4.5 8.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 20.0 4.2 4.9
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.6 9.6 4.9
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 18.2 11.1 2.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.5 3.9 1.8
8 Jalen Green HOU 15.3 4.5 3.1
9 Trey Murphy III NO 15.0 4.1 2.0
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 9.6 2.1
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.4 7.7 1.5
12 Herbert Jones NO 10.8 4.0 2.5
13 Jeff Green HOU 7.9 2.4 1.2
14 Naji Marshall NO 7.7 3.4 2.1
15 Amen Thompson HOU 7.6 3.3 1.9
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.5 2.2 1.4
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 2.4 0.8
18 Jose Alvarado NO 6.2 2.7 1.8
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.8 1.7 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.4 2.8 0.8
21 Dyson Daniels NO 4.7 2.5 1.2
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.6 2.7 1.1
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.8 0.8
24 Nate Hinton HOU 3.4 1.6 0.6
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.3 2.1 0.8
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 1.9 0.6
27 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.0 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.