NBA games

ORL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
117110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL36372024117
IND27323318110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home IND
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 34 7 4
Franz Wagner S 36 24 6 0
Gary Harris S 35 15 1 3
Cole Anthony 24 12 6 3
Moritz Wagner 20 9 3 3
Anthony Black S 28 8 3 2
Caleb Houstan 21 6 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 16 4 8 4
Jonathan Isaac 12 4 1 1
Goga Bitadze 11 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 29 2 15
Myles Turner S 29 24 7 0
Buddy Hield S 38 20 7 1
Andrew Nembhard S 36 17 1 5
Jalen Smith 15 11 2 1
Obi Toppin S 24 3 6 0
Aaron Nesmith 28 3 3 2
Bennedict Mathurin 16 2 2 1
T.J. McConnell 7 1 0 2
Isaiah Jackson 6 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
5 Bruce Brown IND
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Obi Toppin IND
8%
8 Gary Harris ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Buddy Hield IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
25%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.2 7.7 5.3
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.2 4.1 11.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.3 5.9 5.5
4 Cole Anthony ORL 16.6 4.5 3.8
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.5 4.1 2.5
6 Myles Turner IND 16.4 7.7 1.4
7 Buddy Hield IND 13.1 4.0 3.0
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.6 3.5 1.4
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.1 4.2 1.4
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.0 4.5 1.5
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 6.6 2.1
12 Bruce Brown IND 10.3 4.9 2.7
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.7 7.1 1.8
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.8 5.5 1.0
15 Jalen Smith IND 7.8 4.5 0.9
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 3.1 5.1
17 Gary Harris ORL 7.0 2.1 1.9
18 Anthony Black ORL 6.8 3.3 2.1
19 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.5 1.8 3.2
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.3 4.2 0.7
21 Jordan Nwora IND 5.6 2.1 1.2
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.3 2.1 0.7
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.3 1.7 0.9
24 Ben Sheppard IND 2.9 0.9 0.5
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.5 1.1 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.1 1.1
27 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.