NBA games

DEN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
102–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25293018102
CHA273392695

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHA
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 22 5 1
Jamal Murray S 33 20 12 5
Nikola Jokic S 36 18 10 9
Aaron Gordon S 32 14 2 1
Christian Braun 18 11 7 1
Julian Strawther 16 10 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 3 3 2
Reggie Jackson 15 2 3 4
Peyton Watson 17 2 3 0
Zeke Nnaji 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 22 7 2
P.J. Washington 28 20 8 2
Nick Smith Jr. 25 19 3 2
Nick Richards S 38 12 15 3
Gordon Hayward S 31 8 6 4
Cody Martin 17 6 0 0
Ish Smith S 26 4 3 8
Brandon Miller S 11 4 1 2
Bryce McGowens 18 0 3 0
Nate Mensah 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gordon Hayward · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Gordon Hayward makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
9 Nick Richards CHA
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 25.3 4.3 8.0
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.9 11.9 9.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.3 4.5 4.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 18.7 5.8 2.8
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 17.8 4.4 4.8
6 Brandon Miller CHA 17.1 4.4 3.0
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.1 6.7 3.2
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.5 6.7 1.7
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 13.4 2.4 4.9
10 P.J. Washington CHA 12.0 5.4 2.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.1 2.9 2.5
12 Peyton Watson DEN 8.7 4.0 1.5
13 Nick Richards CHA 8.3 7.0 1.0
14 Christian Braun DEN 7.4 3.1 1.5
15 Julian Strawther DEN 6.7 2.2 1.5
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.6 2.0 1.1
17 Justin Holiday DEN 6.0 2.0 1.6
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.7 5.1 1.1
19 Ish Smith CHA 4.8 1.3 2.8
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.7 1.4 0.6
21 James Bouknight CHA 4.7 1.4 0.6
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.3 3.4 0.8
23 JT Thor CHA 3.6 1.8 0.6
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.9 2.7 0.5
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.2 0.5
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.5 0.9 0.7
27 Leaky Black CHA 2.4 1.3 0.5
28 Amari Bailey CHA 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.