NBA games

BOS @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
145–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28403839145
LAC21303027108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 30 4 2
Jaylen Brown S 29 24 6 2
Jrue Holiday S 28 20 6 7
Derrick White S 29 18 3 3
Neemias Queta 23 14 12 3
Oshae Brissett 18 12 3 1
Payton Pritchard 23 9 4 3
Al Horford S 27 6 8 5
Lamar Stevens 5 4 2 1
Sam Hauser 19 3 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 30 21 3 2
Ivica Zubac S 27 16 10 0
Daniel Theis 21 15 1 1
James Harden S 29 14 4 9
Brandon Boston 13 13 3 0
Russell Westbrook 21 12 5 5
Norman Powell 25 7 0 0
Kobe Brown 25 6 2 4
Amir Coffey S 17 2 2 1
Bones Hyland 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 James Harden LAC
8%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
6 Paul George LAC
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
44%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 7.7 5.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.2 5.2 4.5
3 James Harden LAC 22.0 5.4 8.8
4 Paul George LAC 21.1 4.6 5.2
5 Derrick White BOS 20.3 4.4 5.4
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.4 3.4 1.7
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.1 5.4 4.8
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.0 9.0 1.6
9 Al Horford BOS 10.3 7.8 3.0
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.1 5.9 3.2
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.4 2.9 2.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 3.9 1.5
13 Terance Mann LAC 7.5 2.9 1.7
14 Daniel Theis LAC 6.9 3.7 0.8
15 Neemias Queta BOS 5.5 5.3 0.7
16 Amir Coffey LAC 5.4 2.3 1.0
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.0 1.4 1.8
18 Brandon Boston LAC 4.4 1.4 0.8
19 JD Davison BOS 4.2 1.6 2.9
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.7 2.1 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.7 3.1 0.6
22 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.6 1.8 0.6
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 1.9 0.4
25 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.1 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.