NBA games

MIL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
130–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL36263830130
NY27273324111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NY
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 28 7 7
Bobby Portis 27 23 11 1
Khris Middleton S 33 20 5 5
Malik Beasley S 31 19 6 1
Damian Lillard S 34 19 9 7
Pat Connaughton 22 8 8 0
Cameron Payne 14 8 1 1
Brook Lopez S 35 5 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 11 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 36 3 7
Julius Randle S 34 26 8 1
RJ Barrett S 29 13 7 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 12 13 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 24 11 2 2
Immanuel Quickley 22 7 2 1
Quentin Grimes 16 2 2 0
Taj Gibson 15 2 1 1
Josh Hart 26 2 2 3
Dmytro Skapintsev 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
19%
2 RJ Barrett NY
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
5 Julius Randle NY
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
94%
Jumper
1%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.1 11.4 7.2
2 Julius Randle NY 28.9 8.2 5.7
3 Jalen Brunson NY 28.6 4.8 7.0
4 Damian Lillard MIL 26.3 4.4 8.2
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.7 4.4 2.8
6 Khris Middleton MIL 17.1 5.9 4.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.4 7.3 1.5
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 4.9 1.8
9 Malik Beasley MIL 12.1 4.6 1.8
10 Immanuel Quickley NY 11.9 2.5 2.1
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 10.6 3.1 2.0
12 Josh Hart NY 9.9 5.2 3.0
13 Evan Fournier NY 8.3 2.3 1.0
14 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.9 9.2 1.8
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.6 1.5 2.5
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.6 3.6 1.8
17 Quentin Grimes NY 6.2 1.8 1.2
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.6 2.6 1.0
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 2.3 1.2
20 AJ Green MIL 3.5 1.1 0.7
21 Miles McBride NY 3.1 1.0 0.8
22 Chris Livingston MIL 2.7 1.1 0.3
23 Taj Gibson NY 2.6 1.7 0.5
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.3 1.3 0.7
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.2 1.3 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.0 0.6
27 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.5 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.