NBA games

PHX @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
105–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30243021105
SAC35303817120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SAC
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 34 28 7 2
Devin Booker S 36 24 4 7
Grayson Allen S 30 11 4 2
Udoka Azubuike 22 11 11 2
Chimezie Metu 13 10 4 0
Nassir Little 16 6 0 0
Saben Lee 20 6 3 4
Jordan Goodwin 14 3 3 0
Yuta Watanabe 12 2 2 0
Drew Eubanks S 15 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 35 28 11 12
De'Aaron Fox S 32 23 6 7
Keegan Murray S 33 21 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 37 19 1 0
Kevin Huerter S 27 13 2 5
Malik Monk 20 7 2 5
JaVale McGee 10 5 1 0
Sasha Vezenkov 6 3 1 0
Keon Ellis 17 1 3 1
Juan Toscano-Anderson 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Drew Eubanks · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Drew Eubanks makes alley oop dunk shot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Nassir Little PHX
8%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.2 4.9 6.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 30.2 4.6 6.9
3 Devin Booker PHX 27.1 5.5 8.0
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.4 11.6 7.5
5 Malik Monk SAC 16.9 2.9 6.0
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.3 4.3 1.8
7 Eric Gordon PHX 13.5 2.3 2.8
8 Grayson Allen PHX 12.7 4.2 2.8
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.4 3.4 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.0 3.4 2.0
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.3 4.4 3.4
12 Trey Lyles SAC 6.2 4.5 1.7
13 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 3.4 0.9
14 Keon Ellis SAC 5.8 1.9 1.8
15 Saben Lee PHX 5.7 1.4 1.9
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.2 4.2 0.8
17 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.2 2.4 0.8
18 Nassir Little PHX 5.2 3.1 1.1
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.0 2.4 0.7
20 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.7 1.2 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.4 0.6
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.3 2.6 0.6
23 Chris Duarte SAC 3.3 1.7 0.7
24 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.3 1.3 1.0
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.1 3.0 0.5
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.5 1.4 0.4
27 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.5 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.