NBA games

WSH @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25362235118
GS28353828129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home GS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 27 25 3 3
Corey Kispert 25 18 1 0
Daniel Gafford S 23 15 4 1
Tyus Jones S 25 14 3 6
Jared Butler 7 8 1 4
Anthony Gill 11 8 3 0
Kyle Kuzma S 25 7 9 3
Deni Avdija S 20 7 4 4
Ryan Rollins 11 7 1 1
Bilal Coulibaly 32 7 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 27 30 4 7
Jonathan Kuminga S 27 22 4 3
Klay Thompson S 27 20 3 2
Dario Saric 20 13 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 25 10 15 3
Brandin Podziemski S 29 10 7 5
Gui Santos 6 7 2 0
Kevon Looney S 11 5 5 0
Moses Moody 19 5 3 0
Chris Paul 25 4 7 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 18-foot jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Tyus Jones WSH
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
11%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
7 Klay Thompson GS
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
9%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.4 5.0 6.3
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.5 6.0 4.0
3 Klay Thompson GS 20.4 4.9 2.7
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.7 3.0 4.2
5 Tyus Jones WSH 15.2 3.8 6.1
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.9 4.9 1.7
7 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.5 8.3 2.2
8 Deni Avdija WSH 12.4 5.8 4.5
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.9 4.4 1.8
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.9 5.7 3.4
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 2.2 1.7
12 Dario Saric GS 9.7 4.5 2.2
13 Moses Moody GS 9.5 3.4 1.3
14 Chris Paul GS 9.1 3.6 7.6
15 Landry Shamet WSH 6.7 1.3 1.2
16 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 6.1 2.1
17 Mike Muscala WSH 5.0 2.5 1.0
18 Lester Quinones GS 4.9 1.7 1.5
19 Jerome Robinson GS 4.7 2.5 1.2
20 Ryan Rollins WSH 4.2 1.8 1.3
21 Jared Butler WSH 4.0 0.9 1.7
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 3.8 0.9
23 Cory Joseph GS 3.9 1.4 2.2
24 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.3 1.2 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.6 0.6
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.2 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.