NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
96–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL1722213696
HOU23333333122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 30 20 6 2
Dexter Dennis 17 18 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 26 16 3 1
Richaun Holmes 22 16 8 1
Jaden Hardy S 24 8 2 4
A.J. Lawson 23 8 2 1
Markieff Morris S 12 4 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 3 4 1
Greg Brown III 12 3 5 2
Dwight Powell 8 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 25 22 15 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 21 8 1
Jalen Green S 27 17 6 4
Cam Whitmore 14 14 4 0
Fred VanVleet S 26 10 2 4
Dillon Brooks S 22 10 3 1
Amen Thompson 22 9 6 4
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 9 6 1 0
Jock Landale 16 3 4 2
Aaron Holiday 15 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
18%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
13%
4 Fred VanVleet HOU
13%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
11%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
10%
8 Grant Williams DAL
9%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
10 Markieff Morris DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Fred VanVleet HOU 21.1 4.6 8.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 9.1 4.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 17.2 4.6 3.8
4 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.0 3.8 2.0
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.9 3.4 1.6
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.9 9.7 2.3
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 12.5 4.1 1.5
8 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.6 2.5 1.7
9 Grant Williams DAL 8.5 3.9 1.7
10 Jeff Green HOU 8.4 2.4 1.4
11 Amen Thompson HOU 8.1 3.2 1.9
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.3 2.0 1.8
13 Seth Curry DAL 5.5 1.9 1.1
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.5 1.9 0.5
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.5 2.4 1.0
16 Dwight Powell DAL 4.2 2.7 1.0
17 Markieff Morris DAL 4.0 2.1 1.0
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.9 1.4 0.6
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 2.1 1.0
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.9 0.9
21 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.1 3.6 0.6
22 Greg Brown III DAL 2.4 1.9 0.4
23 Dexter Dennis DAL 2.4 0.8 0.3
24 Nate Hinton HOU 2.2 0.9 0.3
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.1 1.4 0.5
26 Jock Landale HOU 1.7 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.