NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26342627113
MIA33292634122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 30 3 13
Dejounte Murray S 34 24 8 6
Bogdan Bogdanovic 35 23 2 5
Saddiq Bey S 40 16 10 2
Onyeka Okongwu 26 9 7 1
Clint Capela S 28 8 10 0
Patty Mills 12 3 1 1
Wesley Matthews 7 0 1 0
Garrison Mathews S 18 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 30 7 2
Duncan Robinson 25 27 3 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 37 19 7 1
Bam Adebayo S 38 18 11 6
Caleb Martin S 35 11 8 2
Kevin Love 10 6 0 1
Haywood Highsmith 10 5 5 2
Kyle Lowry S 22 3 4 3
Josh Richardson 29 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
3 Trae Young ATL
12%
4 Clint Capela ATL
11%
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
10%
6 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.2 3.4 13.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 25.2 4.9 5.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.0 9.5 4.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.1 4.5 5.6
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.8 4.4 3.1
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.8 3.8 3.3
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.8 3.3 4.2
8 Caleb Martin MIA 16.5 6.4 3.7
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.2 6.5 1.6
10 Clint Capela ATL 13.9 11.1 1.7
11 Josh Richardson MIA 13.4 3.3 3.6
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.0 3.5 3.7
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.7 6.7 1.6
14 Kevin Love MIA 10.6 6.5 3.1
15 Jamal Cain MIA 7.1 3.5 0.8
16 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.9 4.7 1.7
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.8 2.8 1.7
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.7 3.4 0.8
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.6 1.4 0.7
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.6 2.0 0.9
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.3 2.0 0.6
22 Trent Forrest ATL 2.2 1.1 1.4
23 Patty Mills ATL 2.0 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.