NBA games

DEN @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
122–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28303034122
BKN28322631117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BKN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 34 32 5 9
Nikola Jokic S 34 31 11 7
Aaron Gordon S 32 18 5 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 15 4 3
Peyton Watson 20 9 3 0
Reggie Jackson 16 8 2 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 3 5 4
Christian Braun 16 2 0 1
Zeke Nnaji 7 2 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 6 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 34 23 0 2
Cameron Johnson S 25 17 1 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 30 14 4 1
Mikal Bridges S 29 14 3 6
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 13 10 4
Royce O'Neale 22 13 6 3
Nic Claxton S 28 10 16 6
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 7 4 5
Spencer Dinwiddie S 33 6 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 20-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
40%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.7 11.3 9.5
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.7 3.7 3.3
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.3 4.5 3.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 19.2 4.3 5.1
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 16.9 4.3 7.0
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 15.1 2.3 4.9
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.4 7.2 1.7
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.5 6.8 3.2
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.7 4.4 2.2
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.7 10.0 1.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.3 2.7 2.2
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.6 4.2 1.3
13 Peyton Watson DEN 8.5 3.9 1.5
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.5 4.0 3.0
15 Christian Braun DEN 8.4 3.3 1.7
16 Julian Strawther DEN 7.6 2.2 1.5
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.8 7.5 1.6
18 Justin Holiday DEN 6.3 2.1 1.8
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.2 2.4 3.2
20 Trendon Watford BKN 5.4 3.0 1.6
21 Harry Giles III BKN 5.1 2.5 0.5
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.6 5.2 0.9
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.4 3.0 0.8
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.8 1.4 0.7
25 Braxton Key DEN 2.7 1.8 0.8
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.2 0.5
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.