NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
111–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR37213122111
PHI28333228121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 31 5 5
Jakob Poeltl S 29 19 8 2
Gary Trent Jr. 26 17 4 1
Scottie Barnes S 35 12 7 7
OG Anunoby S 35 12 4 6
Dennis Schroder S 34 6 3 6
Otto Porter Jr. 15 5 3 0
Precious Achiuwa 16 4 6 1
Jalen McDaniels 2 3 2 0
Malachi Flynn 10 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 38 33 8 7
Tyrese Maxey S 41 33 4 10
Joel Embiid S 35 31 10 9
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 8 3 0
Marcus Morris Sr. S 31 7 4 5
Paul Reed 13 4 4 0
Danuel House Jr. 23 3 1 1
Furkan Korkmaz 7 2 1 0
KJ Martin 1 0 0 0
Jaden Springer 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes free throw clear path 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
4 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
7 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
8 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
19%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 35.3 11.3 6.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.2 2.9 6.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.9 9.3 5.8
4 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.6 6.3 4.2
5 OG Anunoby TOR 14.0 4.0 3.0
6 Tobias Harris PHI 13.1 5.9 3.0
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.3 2.9 6.4
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 11.5 4.1 3.1
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.3 4.0 1.3
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.1 7.2 1.8
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 9.9 2.9 2.0
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 9.0 5.5 1.6
13 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 8.2 3.5 1.2
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.5 2.4 2.6
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.8 4.2 1.5
16 Jaden Springer PHI 5.6 2.2 1.3
17 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.4 2.3 2.4
18 Chris Boucher TOR 5.3 2.8 0.5
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.2 1.7 1.2
20 Robert Covington PHI 5.0 3.4 0.8
21 Javonte Smart PHI 4.7 1.3 1.5
22 Gradey Dick TOR 3.2 0.9 0.6
23 KJ Martin PHI 3.1 1.8 0.9
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.8 1.0 0.9
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.4 1.5 0.5
27 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 1.8 1.5 0.3
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.