NBA games

WSH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH33342625118
POR24302637117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 37 32 8 6
Tyus Jones S 36 24 3 3
Daniel Gafford S 31 16 8 0
Deni Avdija S 35 13 11 6
Jordan Poole S 34 13 2 6
Corey Kispert 22 9 0 2
Mike Muscala 14 5 1 1
Danilo Gallinari 13 4 2 0
Bilal Coulibaly 18 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 41 4 7
Deandre Ayton S 35 23 16 2
Jerami Grant S 32 20 2 4
Duop Reath 10 10 5 0
Jabari Walker 24 8 11 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 28 7 2 4
Toumani Camara S 18 4 3 0
Scoot Henderson 26 4 4 2
Matisse Thybulle 30 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
15%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Jerami Grant POR
11%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Malcolm Brogdon POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.5 6.4 4.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 25.5 3.6 6.2
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.9 4.3 4.0
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.9 2.9 4.1
5 Scoot Henderson POR 15.5 3.6 5.1
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.0 3.5 5.6
7 Deandre Ayton POR 14.6 11.4 2.4
8 Tyus Jones WSH 14.2 4.0 6.1
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.7 7.9 2.0
10 Deni Avdija WSH 12.7 5.6 4.6
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.7 4.8 1.8
12 Corey Kispert WSH 10.9 2.6 1.7
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.4 5.4 1.5
14 Skylar Mays POR 9.9 2.7 5.9
15 Duop Reath POR 8.2 3.3 1.3
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.6 3.5 1.3
17 Jabari Walker POR 7.2 5.7 1.2
18 Danilo Gallinari WSH 5.5 2.5 0.8
19 Jared Butler WSH 4.6 1.2 1.8
20 Ryan Rollins WSH 4.4 1.9 1.2
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.0 2.3 0.9
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.7 1.5 0.7
23 Kris Murray POR 3.4 2.0 0.8
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.9 0.8
25 Moses Brown POR 2.9 4.0 0.4
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.