NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32272428111
MIN36272431118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 31 8 4
Austin Reaves 27 20 8 5
Rui Hachimura S 34 18 4 0
D'Angelo Russell S 38 17 4 8
Taurean Prince S 37 14 5 1
Cam Reddish S 37 8 1 2
Jaxson Hayes 11 3 3 1
Christian Wood 4 0 0 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 27 7 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 21 6 4
Mike Conley S 30 16 1 8
Rudy Gobert S 37 15 13 3
Jaden McDaniels S 36 14 1 3
Naz Reid 21 9 5 2
Kyle Anderson 23 9 5 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 15 5 1 3
Troy Brown Jr. 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
17%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
10%
8 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
10 Austin Reaves LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
86%
Jumper
2%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 27.1 11.6 3.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.3 5.0 5.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.9 10.7 3.7
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.5 3.9 4.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.3 5.7 1.9
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.7 3.0 6.2
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.6 3.1 5.9
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.0 11.9 1.6
9 Taurean Prince LAL 11.3 3.4 2.2
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 2.9 1.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.8 2.7 2.5
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.4 3.5 1.3
13 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 8.7 2.7 1.9
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.2 3.5 3.8
15 Cam Reddish LAL 7.0 3.1 1.5
16 Christian Wood LAL 6.8 4.6 1.1
17 Luka Garza MIN 6.0 2.4 1.0
18 Shake Milton MIN 5.8 1.5 1.7
19 Max Christie LAL 5.0 2.0 1.0
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 3.4 0.7
21 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.2 1.5 1.0
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.2 1.4 1.1
23 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.0 2.5 0.5
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.0 0.5
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.4 1.4 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.