NBA games

LAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
115–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29303323115
OKC35294525134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 34 23 9 6
Paul George S 29 22 4 4
Norman Powell 23 16 4 1
Russell Westbrook 30 15 13 4
Amir Coffey S 33 9 4 1
Brandon Boston 16 7 1 1
Ivica Zubac S 17 6 3 3
Bones Hyland 10 6 0 2
Terance Mann S 24 5 1 1
Daniel Theis 15 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 31 8 4
Chet Holmgren S 30 23 6 7
Luguentz Dort S 31 21 3 4
Jalen Williams S 29 13 4 7
Josh Giddey S 14 11 3 4
Isaiah Joe 25 11 2 0
Aaron Wiggins 25 8 7 1
Ousmane Dieng 8 7 1 0
Kenrich Williams 18 5 2 3
Cason Wallace 20 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 15-foot jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Paul George LAC
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 5.1 6.8
2 James Harden LAC 21.8 5.1 9.3
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.7 7.5 2.4
4 Paul George LAC 20.0 4.9 5.4
5 Jalen Williams OKC 18.6 4.5 3.8
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.7 3.3 1.7
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 10.7 1.6
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.1 6.5 4.0
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.2 6.1 3.5
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.6 1.6
11 Terance Mann LAC 8.8 3.3 1.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.6 1.4
13 Daniel Theis LAC 7.1 4.0 0.9
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 2.3 1.3
15 Amir Coffey LAC 5.3 2.1 0.9
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 1.8 0.9
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 2.5 1.3
18 Bones Hyland LAC 4.8 1.0 1.5
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.4 2.4 1.1
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.0 0.9 2.4
21 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.9 3.5 0.7
22 Tre Mann OKC 3.8 1.6 1.4
23 Davis Bertans OKC 3.8 0.9 0.7
24 Brandon Boston LAC 3.7 1.2 0.8
25 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.7 1.4 1.0
26 Kobe Brown LAC 3.2 1.9 0.8
27 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.4 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.