NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
114–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31252632114
MIL28313227118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 29 6 6
Paolo Banchero S 34 23 7 4
Moritz Wagner 27 21 8 2
Cole Anthony 33 18 11 6
Gary Harris S 35 14 2 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 21 4 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 14 4 4 0
Anthony Black S 20 1 2 1
Caleb Houstan 18 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 37 10 6
Damian Lillard S 35 24 5 8
Brook Lopez S 37 14 7 0
Khris Middleton S 29 14 4 3
Malik Beasley S 28 8 5 2
Pat Connaughton 21 8 8 2
Bobby Portis 21 6 8 1
MarJon Beauchamp 11 5 3 0
Cameron Payne 13 2 1 4
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
38%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
8 Anthony Black ORL
5%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
10 Gary Harris ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
7%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.1 11.5 6.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.5 4.5 7.7
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 7.6 5.4
4 Franz Wagner ORL 22.5 6.1 5.3
5 Cole Anthony ORL 17.0 4.3 3.8
6 Khris Middleton MIL 16.1 5.6 4.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 6.6 1.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 4.6 2.0
9 Malik Beasley MIL 12.1 5.1 1.7
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.0 6.8 2.1
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.5 3.9 1.4
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.5 6.8 1.8
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.5 4.5 0.7
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.7 3.4 1.9
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.5 1.4 2.3
16 Anthony Black ORL 6.4 3.0 2.1
17 Gary Harris ORL 6.3 2.0 1.9
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.1 2.6 0.9
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.1 2.2 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.9 2.1 0.7
21 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.3 0.7
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Robin Lopez MIL 2.6 1.6 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.2 0.6
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.7 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.