NBA games

IND @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22342126103
MEM35232830116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MEM
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin S 28 22 5 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 17 4 14
Myles Turner S 36 15 6 2
Buddy Hield S 32 15 6 4
Aaron Nesmith 28 14 5 0
Bennedict Mathurin 19 6 4 3
Andrew Nembhard 16 6 1 1
Bruce Brown S 28 4 4 2
Isaiah Jackson 12 2 3 0
T.J. McConnell 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 31 6 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 21 8 1
Ja Morant S 34 20 5 8
Ziaire Williams 18 16 1 2
Santi Aldama 25 13 3 2
John Konchar 21 6 6 1
Xavier Tillman 21 5 5 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 2 4 3
Bismack Biyombo S 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ja Morant makes two point shot (Bismack Biyombo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
5 Derrick Rose MEM
8%
6 Buddy Hield IND
8%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
8 Bruce Brown IND
8%
9 Obi Toppin IND
8%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
39%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 27.0 4.6 5.9
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.6 5.6 2.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.5 3.8 11.5
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.4 4.2 2.9
5 Myles Turner IND 16.3 8.1 1.5
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.9 3.5 1.5
7 Bruce Brown IND 12.8 5.2 2.9
8 Buddy Hield IND 12.3 3.8 2.8
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.5 4.3 1.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.1 5.8 2.0
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.9 5.8 2.0
12 David Roddy MEM 9.4 4.5 2.0
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 3.6 5.9
14 Derrick Rose MEM 9.1 2.4 3.8
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.6 5.5 1.1
16 Bismack Biyombo MEM 7.0 6.1 2.0
17 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.7 2.7 1.6
18 Jordan Nwora IND 6.2 2.4 1.3
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.8 3.1 1.3
20 Andrew Nembhard IND 5.1 1.3 3.2
21 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 1.1 3.0
22 John Konchar MEM 4.4 3.3 1.0
23 James Johnson IND 2.8 1.4 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.