NBA games

SA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
95–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2820222595
CHI27252537114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHI
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 31 21 4 2
Zach Collins 28 14 9 2
Malaki Branham S 29 13 6 2
Keldon Johnson S 32 11 6 2
Jeremy Sochan S 34 9 7 2
Tre Jones 21 9 1 3
Victor Wembanyama S 22 7 5 5
Doug McDermott 12 3 0 1
Julian Champagnie 11 3 1 0
Blake Wesley 3 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 36 22 6 5
DeMar DeRozan S 36 21 4 5
Patrick Williams S 31 18 4 2
Nikola Vucevic S 27 16 5 3
Andre Drummond 19 12 8 1
Ayo Dosunmu 26 11 2 0
Alex Caruso S 22 8 3 3
Jevon Carter 19 5 1 2
Dalen Terry 18 1 3 3
Terry Taylor 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malaki Branham · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Malaki Branham makes dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
4 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Zach Collins SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.4 4.9 6.9
2 Coby White CHI 24.5 6.3 6.6
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.9 11.0 4.4
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.7 12.1 3.6
5 Keldon Johnson SA 19.3 6.2 3.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 3.4 3.1
7 Patrick Williams CHI 13.9 5.2 2.2
8 Zach Collins SA 11.6 5.1 2.7
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.6 3.5 3.1
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.8 5.1 3.8
11 Malaki Branham SA 10.8 2.9 2.8
12 Alex Caruso CHI 10.1 3.7 2.6
13 Cedi Osman SA 8.6 2.9 2.3
14 Tre Jones SA 8.6 2.5 4.5
15 Torrey Craig CHI 7.6 3.9 1.0
16 Andre Drummond CHI 7.1 8.2 0.9
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.0 1.6 1.4
18 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.5 1.3
19 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 1.7 0.7
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 2.1 1.1
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.2 0.9 1.5
22 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.2 0.7
23 Dalen Terry CHI 2.9 2.2 1.0
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.7 0.8
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.3 1.4 0.6
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.2 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.