NBA games

NO @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
123–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO36302829123
CLE28242428104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CLE
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 28 28 4 3
CJ McCollum S 34 18 6 4
Brandon Ingram S 28 17 7 6
Naji Marshall 22 14 6 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 13 7 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 11 5 1
Dyson Daniels 20 7 2 1
Herbert Jones S 30 7 1 4
Jordan Hawkins 12 6 0 2
Jose Alvarado 18 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dean Wade S 26 20 9 0
Isaac Okoro S 32 16 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 27 14 7 3
Max Strus S 33 13 3 5
Georges Niang 19 11 2 1
Caris LeVert 23 9 0 4
Craig Porter Jr. S 29 7 3 11
Tristan Thompson 21 6 7 3
Emoni Bates 9 3 0 1
Isaiah Mobley 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaac Okoro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Isaac Okoro makes 2-foot two point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 CJ McCollum NO
10%
6 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
9%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
17%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 23.6 4.4 5.8
2 Zion Williamson NO 22.1 6.1 4.9
3 CJ McCollum NO 19.2 3.8 5.0
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO 18.4 11.0 2.5
5 Trey Murphy III NO 14.6 3.9 1.9
6 Caris LeVert CLE 14.1 3.5 3.7
7 Max Strus CLE 13.7 4.5 3.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.3 9.2 2.6
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.3 4.0 2.7
10 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.6 2.9 3.2
11 Dean Wade CLE 7.8 5.3 1.5
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.8 3.4 2.1
13 Georges Niang CLE 7.7 2.7 1.6
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.4 1.7 1.2
15 Naji Marshall NO 6.8 3.2 2.0
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.8 2.0 0.7
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.4 2.6 1.7
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.8 4.2 1.1
19 Dyson Daniels NO 4.4 2.7 1.2
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 2.4 0.8
21 Cody Zeller NO 3.2 2.6 1.2
22 Emoni Bates CLE 3.2 1.1 0.5
23 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.6 1.5 0.9
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.