NBA games

UTAH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
119–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH34302629119
DET32263023111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DET
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Olynyk S 35 27 3 6
Collin Sexton S 32 19 4 8
Ochai Agbaji 33 18 2 0
Simone Fontecchio S 29 16 2 0
John Collins S 32 13 9 1
Kris Dunn S 33 13 5 10
Taylor Hendricks 16 7 4 0
Walker Kessler 20 4 10 1
Luka Samanic 10 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 28 6 10
Jaden Ivey S 35 24 5 7
Marvin Bagley III S 31 22 5 0
Bojan Bogdanovic S 35 8 1 1
Marcus Sasser 13 8 3 0
Isaiah Stewart S 32 7 10 4
Ausar Thompson 19 7 2 1
Alec Burks 9 5 1 0
James Wiseman 15 2 5 0
Isaiah Livers 13 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Marvin Bagley III DET
9%
6 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
7 Killian Hayes DET
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
22%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.8 4.8 7.6
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.5 3.6 4.5
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.5 3.0 3.5
4 Keyonte George UTAH 16.5 3.5 4.7
5 John Collins UTAH 14.9 7.9 1.5
6 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 12.6 4.2 2.1
7 Jaden Ivey DET 11.3 3.5 2.2
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.4 8.9 1.5
9 Killian Hayes DET 10.2 3.8 4.5
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.9 3.1 1.6
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.3 5.4 1.6
12 Ausar Thompson DET 8.6 5.6 1.6
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.5 4.2 1.2
14 James Wiseman DET 8.1 5.1 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.8 1.7 2.7
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.5 4.6 5.0
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.3 3.0 3.6
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 2.8 0.9
19 Isaiah Livers DET 5.8 2.4 1.4
20 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.7 6.3 1.1
21 Alec Burks DET 5.7 1.7 1.0
22 Kevin Knox II DET 5.0 2.1 0.8
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.2 2.4 0.7
24 Joe Harris DET 4.0 1.5 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.