NBA games

BOS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
144–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS38363931144
SAC41252429119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SAC
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 28 5 6
Derrick White S 29 28 2 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 24 9 2
Jrue Holiday S 34 21 8 10
Payton Pritchard 29 20 4 4
Sam Hauser S 35 10 5 1
Neemias Queta 19 6 8 0
Oshae Brissett 17 3 5 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 16 2 4 3
Lamar Stevens 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 26 29 3 3
Keegan Murray S 26 13 1 0
Domantas Sabonis S 26 13 10 8
Keon Ellis 19 12 2 4
Trey Lyles 27 11 5 3
Malik Monk 25 10 2 5
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 4 3
Kessler Edwards 6 7 2 0
Kevin Huerter S 16 7 1 0
JaVale McGee 12 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
18%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.6 4.9 7.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.6 5.2 4.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 11.6 7.0
4 Derrick White BOS 19.4 4.7 5.9
5 Malik Monk SAC 18.6 3.1 5.8
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.5 7.3 2.1
7 Keegan Murray SAC 16.2 4.4 2.0
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.8 5.5 3.7
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.3 3.4 1.5
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.6 3.9 2.4
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.7 3.9 1.6
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.3 3.0 2.4
13 Neemias Queta BOS 5.8 4.9 0.7
14 Trey Lyles SAC 5.8 4.5 1.4
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 3.6 1.0
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.1 1.8 1.5
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.7 2.1 0.7
18 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.4 1.2 1.6
19 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.3 1.7 0.6
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.3 0.5
21 Chris Duarte SAC 3.2 1.6 0.6
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.1 1.2 0.6
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 2.2 0.7
24 JaVale McGee SAC 2.4 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.