NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC35321835120
DAL22342728111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 30 10 5
Norman Powell 31 21 3 2
James Harden S 39 17 5 11
Amir Coffey S 39 12 5 3
Ivica Zubac S 25 12 9 0
Daniel Theis 16 11 2 2
Russell Westbrook 23 10 6 3
Terance Mann S 29 7 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 44 28 9 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 37 21 3 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 39 19 3 2
Dante Exum S 40 16 6 1
Jaden Hardy 23 15 2 1
Grant Williams S 31 9 9 4
Dwight Powell S 18 3 1 1
A.J. Lawson 1 0 0 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 0 1 1
Markieff Morris 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dwight Powell · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Dwight Powell makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
17%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
3 Dwight Powell DAL
12%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
12%
5 Grant Williams DAL
10%
6 Terance Mann LAC
10%
7 Dante Exum DAL
10%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 33.5 7.9 10.6
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.3 5.9 3.8
3 James Harden LAC 21.9 4.8 8.6
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.0 3.4 1.6
5 Dante Exum DAL 13.6 3.9 3.7
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.5 10.3 1.6
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.2 2.9 1.4
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.5 3.7 1.5
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.4 5.8 3.8
10 Terance Mann LAC 9.2 3.1 1.8
11 Grant Williams DAL 8.3 3.5 1.7
12 Daniel Theis LAC 6.2 3.8 0.7
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.2 2.1 1.8
14 Seth Curry DAL 6.1 2.1 1.2
15 Bones Hyland LAC 4.6 1.0 1.4
16 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.3 1.4 0.7
17 Markieff Morris DAL 4.0 2.1 1.0
18 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 2.6 1.0
19 Amir Coffey LAC 3.8 1.7 0.7
20 Brandon Boston LAC 3.7 1.3 0.8
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.6 2.1 1.1
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.6 3.8 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.3 2.0 0.8
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.