NBA games

ATL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
134–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL39382136134
HOU29363527127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home HOU
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 30 4 14
Bogdan Bogdanovic 30 22 4 5
Dejounte Murray S 35 21 3 5
Onyeka Okongwu 33 19 11 2
Clint Capela S 21 15 9 2
De'Andre Hunter S 28 11 1 3
Saddiq Bey S 32 9 9 0
Garrison Mathews 17 6 1 0
Wesley Matthews 8 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 34 13 1
Fred VanVleet S 44 32 4 15
Dillon Brooks S 30 19 2 1
Jalen Green S 32 16 4 2
Alperen Sengun S 27 14 9 5
Aaron Holiday 26 8 2 0
Jeff Green 12 2 1 0
Amen Thompson 8 2 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 19 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Trae Young ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.3 3.5 11.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.9 9.3 5.3
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 21.3 4.6 5.1
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.5 4.9 8.7
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.3 4.2 2.6
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.4 4.7 1.8
7 Jalen Green HOU 16.9 4.6 4.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.6 3.8 2.1
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.6 6.1 1.7
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 9.7 2.4
11 Clint Capela ATL 12.7 11.2 1.5
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.5 6.6 1.4
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.8 2.6 2.0
14 Jeff Green HOU 8.3 2.5 1.3
15 Amen Thompson HOU 7.3 3.3 2.1
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.9 3.1 1.2
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.0 1.4 0.6
18 Nate Williams HOU 3.9 1.2 0.4
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.7 1.7 0.8
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.6 3.2 1.0
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.1 2.1 0.6
22 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 1.9 0.6
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.1 1.1 1.4
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.0 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.