NBA games

LAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
108–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22332330108
CHI33282934124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHI
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 25 10 9
Austin Reaves 28 21 0 3
Anthony Davis S 38 19 14 3
Taurean Prince S 34 16 4 4
Cam Reddish S 28 13 4 2
Rui Hachimura 16 5 5 1
Gabe Vincent 14 3 1 3
Jaxson Hayes 1 2 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 2 0 0
D'Angelo Russell S 28 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 27 7 9
Coby White S 33 17 7 5
Alex Caruso S 28 15 6 2
Patrick Williams S 34 15 3 2
Ayo Dosunmu 22 14 2 1
Nikola Vucevic S 31 13 10 2
Andre Drummond 16 11 7 1
Jevon Carter 17 10 1 0
Dalen Terry 21 2 5 3
Terry Taylor 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Coby White makes 7-foot two point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
81%
Jumper
5%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.4 12.7 3.1
2 LeBron James LAL 25.2 7.1 8.1
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.6 4.5 6.5
4 Coby White CHI 23.7 5.6 6.3
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 10.2 4.2
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.2 4.1 5.2
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.0 3.3 6.4
8 Patrick Williams CHI 13.9 5.2 2.0
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.0 3.2 2.9
10 Taurean Prince LAL 10.6 3.2 1.9
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.6 1.5
12 Alex Caruso CHI 9.5 3.3 2.4
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.0 1.6 2.4
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.7 5.3 1.0
15 Torrey Craig CHI 7.5 4.0 0.9
16 Cam Reddish LAL 6.8 3.1 1.6
17 Andre Drummond CHI 6.4 7.8 0.8
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.8 1.5 1.4
19 Max Christie LAL 4.6 1.9 1.0
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 4.0 0.9
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 2.9 0.5
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.7 1.9 0.8
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.2 1.7 0.5
24 Julian Phillips CHI 1.6 0.9 0.4
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.