NBA games

DEN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29322923113
TOR20243129104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home TOR
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 31 15 6
Jamal Murray S 32 20 5 6
Aaron Gordon S 30 12 5 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 12 6 2
Peyton Watson 18 11 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 10 2 3
Julian Strawther 14 7 1 2
Reggie Jackson 17 7 2 4
Christian Braun 17 3 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 10 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 33 30 10 5
Pascal Siakam S 36 18 5 1
Precious Achiuwa 25 13 5 1
Gary Trent Jr. 29 12 3 4
OG Anunoby S 40 9 1 3
Dennis Schroder S 31 7 2 7
Malachi Flynn 16 6 3 2
Chris Boucher 12 5 7 0
Jakob Poeltl S 19 4 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.8 11.7 9.9
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.0 6.8 5.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.9 9.2 5.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 19.1 4.2 5.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.9 7.4 1.9
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 15.8 2.3 4.9
7 OG Anunoby TOR 14.6 4.4 2.9
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.4 7.2 3.0
9 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.1 2.9 6.1
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.1 8.3 1.8
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 2.6 2.6
12 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.2 2.8 1.8
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.9 3.3 1.6
14 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.4 5.3 1.7
15 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.7 1.5
16 Julian Strawther DEN 6.8 2.2 1.4
17 Justin Holiday DEN 6.6 2.4 1.8
18 Chris Boucher TOR 5.6 2.5 0.6
19 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.6 2.3 2.4
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.2 3.0 0.9
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.0 5.4 1.1
22 Gradey Dick TOR 3.7 1.0 0.7
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.3 1.4 0.9
24 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.8 1.6 0.6
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.8 1.1 0.5
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.2 1.6 0.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.