NBA games

MIN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN24362726113
PHI28362637127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHI
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 27 7 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 23 13 2
Jaden McDaniels S 38 21 3 0
Naz Reid 20 10 2 1
Mike Conley S 26 9 0 4
Rudy Gobert S 24 8 9 1
Troy Brown Jr. 10 5 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 4 2 2
Wendell Moore Jr. 2 2 0 0
Kyle Anderson 13 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 51 12 3
Tyrese Maxey S 37 35 1 5
Tobias Harris S 37 9 5 3
Paul Reed 12 8 8 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 7 2 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 25 5 1 0
Patrick Beverley 18 5 3 3
De'Anthony Melton S 16 4 3 2
KJ Martin 7 3 0 0
Mo Bamba 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 9:55 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
16%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
8 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
9%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
19%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 42.9 11.8 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.0 3.4 6.2
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.1 5.0 5.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.2 10.1 3.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 14.6 5.8 1.7
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.9 3.2 6.3
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 11.6 1.5
8 Tobias Harris PHI 12.3 5.6 2.4
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI 11.9 3.6 3.0
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.8 2.4 2.5
11 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 9.7 4.2 1.1
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.2 2.7 1.2
13 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 8.1 2.7 1.7
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 8.0 2.4 2.4
15 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.8 3.2 0.8
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.7 3.7 3.5
17 Paul Reed PHI 5.5 3.4 1.3
18 Luka Garza MIN 5.3 2.1 0.6
19 Shake Milton MIN 4.9 1.4 1.4
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.6 1.5 1.0
21 Jaden Springer PHI 4.4 1.7 1.0
22 Mo Bamba PHI 4.0 2.6 0.5
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.1 2.5 0.4
24 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.7 1.0 1.0
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.4 1.0 1.0
26 KJ Martin PHI 1.9 1.1 0.5
27 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.8 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.