NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
115–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA25432126115
ORL24262234106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 28 8 7
Bam Adebayo S 30 18 7 2
Haywood Highsmith 30 15 6 2
Duncan Robinson 23 12 3 6
Thomas Bryant 17 12 5 1
Josh Richardson 34 12 2 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 34 10 3 1
Caleb Martin S 18 5 5 0
Kyle Lowry S 18 3 0 2
Orlando Robinson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 25 20 4 3
Franz Wagner S 32 15 6 5
Moritz Wagner 18 11 7 1
Jalen Suggs S 21 11 1 3
Paolo Banchero S 34 10 8 8
Jonathan Isaac 12 9 4 1
Caleb Houstan 15 9 0 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 8 6 1
Chuma Okeke 5 5 2 1
Goga Bitadze 12 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
6 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Orlando Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 7.5 5.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.5 6.1 5.6
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.2 10.2 4.8
4 Tyler Herro MIA 23.1 4.6 4.7
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.3 4.0 3.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 17.0 4.2 4.3
7 Caleb Martin MIA 16.7 5.9 3.4
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.9 3.3 3.6
9 Josh Richardson MIA 13.4 3.3 3.2
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.9 3.5 2.3
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.0 3.6 3.6
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.2 7.1 2.2
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.8 3.8 1.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.6 6.5 1.9
15 Jamal Cain MIA 7.1 3.5 0.6
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.4 4.7 0.7
17 Gary Harris ORL 6.4 1.8 1.9
18 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.2 4.5 1.4
19 Anthony Black ORL 5.9 2.7 1.8
20 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.2 2.5 1.4
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.0 1.8 0.8
22 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.8 3.0 1.3
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.4 3.1 0.5
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.1 0.8
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.