NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29312627113
IND31403637144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 25 9 7
Brandon Miller S 33 21 6 3
Miles Bridges S 37 19 4 3
P.J. Washington 27 12 4 0
Gordon Hayward S 24 11 1 3
Nick Smith Jr. 6 6 0 0
Ish Smith 16 4 0 6
Nick Richards S 19 4 8 0
Nate Mensah 7 4 2 0
James Bouknight 6 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 26 25 4 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 19 3 13
Aaron Nesmith 23 19 2 1
Myles Turner S 25 18 6 0
Bennedict Mathurin 28 14 2 1
Isaiah Jackson 15 10 3 1
Jalen Smith 8 10 4 0
T.J. McConnell 20 9 5 9
Obi Toppin S 23 6 4 0
Bruce Brown S 28 6 5 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 10:09 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
5 Gordon Hayward CHA
9%
6 Bruce Brown IND
8%
7 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
8 Buddy Hield IND
7%
9 Nick Richards CHA
7%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
40%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 25.8 4.0 8.3
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 25.1 4.1 11.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.5 6.6 3.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.9 4.4 2.9
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 18.4 5.1 5.2
6 Brandon Miller CHA 18.2 4.5 3.0
7 Myles Turner IND 16.5 8.0 1.5
8 Bruce Brown IND 13.7 5.3 2.9
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.1 3.6 1.6
10 P.J. Washington CHA 13.0 5.0 3.3
11 Obi Toppin IND 12.8 4.3 1.8
12 Buddy Hield IND 11.6 3.8 3.0
13 Nick Richards CHA 9.2 7.6 1.2
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 3.4 5.9
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.4 5.5 1.1
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 7.1 2.4 1.2
17 Jalen Smith IND 6.9 4.5 0.8
18 Jordan Nwora IND 5.8 2.4 1.3
19 Ish Smith CHA 5.4 1.6 2.7
20 Andrew Nembhard IND 5.3 1.4 3.3
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.9 1.6 0.7
22 JT Thor CHA 4.0 2.1 0.7
23 Leaky Black CHA 3.2 1.7 0.7
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.4 2.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.