NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
104–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36252023104
POR20293822109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 40 4 5
Devin Booker S 38 26 3 7
Grayson Allen S 33 11 9 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 9 13 3
Drew Eubanks 17 5 6 1
Eric Gordon 29 5 3 4
Nassir Little S 19 4 2 0
Chimezie Metu 15 2 1 1
Jordan Goodwin 20 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 23 3 7
Jerami Grant S 36 22 1 4
Deandre Ayton S 40 16 15 3
Malcolm Brogdon 32 14 4 4
Scoot Henderson 30 9 4 5
Jabari Walker 10 9 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 21 8 1 0
Toumani Camara S 22 5 9 0
Duop Reath 4 3 2 0
Shaedon Sharpe S 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
13%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Nassir Little PHX
7%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
24%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 31.1 5.1 6.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 29.1 5.9 7.7
3 Anfernee Simons POR 24.4 3.2 5.1
4 Jerami Grant POR 23.3 4.3 3.5
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.6 5.6 4.3
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 17.7 11.5 4.1
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.5 3.2 5.5
8 Eric Gordon PHX 15.1 2.5 2.8
9 Scoot Henderson POR 15.0 3.5 4.2
10 Deandre Ayton POR 13.8 9.8 2.0
11 Grayson Allen PHX 12.8 3.9 2.8
12 Skylar Mays POR 9.9 2.5 5.5
13 Toumani Camara POR 9.6 4.6 1.3
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.8 4.7 3.8
15 Duop Reath POR 7.9 3.2 1.2
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.3 3.1 1.3
17 Jabari Walker POR 6.4 5.3 1.0
18 Nassir Little PHX 6.2 3.5 1.3
19 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.8 2.8 0.8
20 Saben Lee PHX 5.7 1.5 1.9
21 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.6 4.2 0.9
22 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.2 2.6 0.7
23 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.8 1.3 0.7
24 Kris Murray POR 3.3 1.8 0.6
25 Moses Brown POR 2.8 3.2 0.3
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.5 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.